TheOne

This season CSKA does not look so convincing and they have more close games than ever before. They still have pretty strong clutch players in DeColo and Rodriguez so it's not worth betting straight money line against them, but most of the times this season they have hard time covering handicaps.

Last time Baskonia lost by more than 10 points this season was... 30.12.2018 Baskonia - Real Madrid

Baskonia has better coaching, better froncourt and usually fight to the last seconds, I do not expect something to change drastically in the first game of this playoff series.

Fenerbahce will be without Sloukas, Vesely and most probably at least 3 other players. They will not give up this game easily, but it kind of shows they have more important tasks in this game than to win it. For Milano it's pretty much do-or-die game and they are pretty consistant at home this season.

Medium stake.

Pedro Martinez will take over Gran Canaria for the third time following his 2002-05 and 2009-14 tenures.
As Martinez coached Gran Canaria, they were much better defensively and as this is not the team with such capabilities on offense, as Martinez last team Baskonia, or even Valencia last year, his primary concern and improvements should be made on defensive end.

Gran Canaria was terrible on defense more or less all season long, but without real coach they conceded close to 100 PPG during last 5 Euroleague matches. Of course the primary concern here is to stay in the ACB, avoid the drop to LEB and finish the 2018-19 campaign in the best possible way.

This is a good place to start building new habits, as Darussafaka is even worse this season and won only 1/10 away games including Turkish championship and usually find points much harder away.

Anything over 160 would be a surprise for me and even though it's a pretty much match for nothing, coaching change should make the difference.

Two of the best defenders from both teams are out, Turner for Pacers, Kawhi for SAS. Hard to set new line, but I expect easier scoring on both sides.

Big Greece derby is always more intense and most of the times defensively oriented. Last 10 games only 2 went over the line in regular time and with the new Panathinaikos coach in Rick Pitino, it should be pretty hard match for OLY. Olympiakos strength always starts with defense and this time should also be no different.

18.11.18 Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 79 : 70
09.11.18 Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 93 : 80
17.06.18 Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 84 : 70
14.06.18 Olympiakos - Panathinaikos 92 : 76
10.06.18 Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 73 : 58
07.06.18 Olympiakos - Panathinaikos 66 : 71
03.06.18 Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 65 : 75
02.03.18 - Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 85 : 87
(71 : 71)
29.01.18 Panathinaikos - Olympiakos 68 : 61

Capela averages less points at home with 15.8 and 1 assist. The catch here is that both Harden and Paul are now healthy and Capela (as many other centers) struggles against Gobert defense and averages only 11.0 points against Utah this season. I expect 10-14 points and 1-2 assists today, even worst case scenario it should most likely go under the line. 

This season 2 clear unders.
Last season 5 unders, 3 overs (one of them 16 pts +1 ass). Overall last 10 games with only 3 overs.

Indiana is just a better team right now. They are more balanced and have their identity. The core remained absolutely the same which is big plus at this stage of the season.
Rockets have their big three more or less healthy at last, but they will need time still. They can win against Bulls, Magic etc. on shoulders of Harden and/or Paul, but they just lack chemistry and decent defence to be favourited against top tier teams (even the ones from the East).
 

Tip of the day my other tip (with description).

NBA season is back and so am I :)

Lets get down to business - both these had their first games against fast teams and scored at will. But they are pretty defensive minded teams at their core and usually win games with defense. Utah are heavy favourites, but even so it's hard to imagine them having such shooting night as with GSW, where they made 19 threes or even as with Kings, where they had 52% shooting from the field and 13/27 3pts. Grizzlies will be worse defensively this year than past years, but they are also not much better on offense, so they have to play better D sooner than later.

Last 3 years h2h meetings:
31.03.18 Utah Jazz - Memphis Grizzlies 107 : 97
10.03.18 Memphis Grizzlies - Utah Jazz 78 : 95
08.02.18 Memphis Grizzlies- Utah Jazz 88 : 92
29.01.17 Utah Jazz - Memphis Grizzlies 95 : 102
09.01.17 Memphis Grizzlies - Utah Jazz 88 : 79
19.12.16 Memphis Grizzlies - Utah Jazz 73 : 82
15.11.16 Utah Jazz - Memphis Grizzlies 96 : 102
05.03.16 Memphis Grizzlies - Utah Jazz 94 : 88
03.01.16 Utah Jazz - Memphis Grizzlies 92 : 87

 

Real lost first game after conceding 94 points, so they should strongly consider slowing Baskonia down.

Baskonia also shot 34 Free throws and had 45% 3pts, both of which should decrease significantly if Real don't want to get into 0-2 hole.

Lega A Finals are tied now at 2-2. Milano won both home games and Trento prevailed in both games at their home arena. The difference in these games was the tempo. Armani plays much faster at home and their percentages rise significantly. They scored over 83 in 12/15 last home games and Trento is not a defensive powerhouse by any means. 
This being the fifth game of the series adds some pressure, but also gives a high possibility of additional fouls in the end of 4th quarter if it will not end as a blowout in Milano favour.

Anytime we get above @3 in Olympiakos - Panathinaikos derby it is most probably some kind of value and it's pretty much the whole deal here. They are really close in quality this season and in H2H matches almost every second match (9 out of last 20 games) ended with visitors victory. Series is at 1-1 now with both teams winning away.

Short this time, as game is pretty close.

Doesn't really matter if Klay plays or not, I see this as a closer game. GSW were lucky in the first game, but I really doubt Cavaliers will just give up after this. Iguodala is still out and he's much more important than given credit usually. 

I definately think there is some value here. We only get 3.45 for Rockets to advance to the Finals - so it's a similar bet with a very serious addition - they will still have to beat either Celtics or Cavs, which might seem easy, but one player out due to injury and this might become a very serious task for Dubs. First two games with Houston showed they still lack consistency and play Jekyll and Hyde. The main reason for this is Curry kind of being lost searching for his role, as Durant clearly takes over as the main dominant Warriors' player.

Anyway there are still many questions to be aswered, as:

• CAVS still have the best player 
• Boston have the best coach and hustle players 
• Houston have the team built specifically to compete against the Warriors.

I believe there is slightly more than 40% for Warriors not to win the title and value is definately there at this point.

Value 20%+

76ers have got 20 wins out of their last 21 games home and away combined. They are playing great and everything going their way lately, Embiid is back and dominating again.

That is not to say I discount Celtics completely, especially at home, but now that Jalen Brown is doubtful for Game 1 it just seems too much of stepping up has to be done in order for Celtics to come out with a win. Philadelphia has the best possible chance to steal home court advantage in game 1 and take control of the series in their hands. I fully expect this well coached and talent stuffed young team to do just that. Medium to high stakes.

Both teams were shooting lights out last two games, with the percentages way above 50%. In the second game they were 66% combined on 2pt shots which is crazy. Last game with 171 points scored, they were 26/50 on 3pts combined.

This should not last, as Fenerbahce should see they have problems in high scoring games against Baskonia, so their primary plan should be to slow down the tempo. They were about 150-155 points in three first games of the season and should be back to right about this total in what could be the decisive game of the season.